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Dak Prescott

DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET

Completions · 23.5 at Fliff ·

52Signal · over 23.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
5 straight over

How the formula reads this game

  • pass attempts: 41.0 a game recently

Expected completions: 27.2 against 23.5 · over 52%, under 48%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 23.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -16.5
23.52025-12-14 vs MIN: 23, under 23.5 by 0.523MIN2025-12-21 vs LAC: 21, under 23.5 by 2.521LAC2025-12-25 at WAS: 19, under 23.5 by 4.519WAS2026-01-04 at NYG: 7, under 23.5 by 16.57NYG2026-09-13 at NYG: 22, under 23.5 by 1.522NYG2026-09-20 vs WAS: 26, over 23.5 by 2.526WAS2026-09-27 vs BAL: 25, over 23.5 by 1.525BAL2026-10-04 at HOU: 32, over 23.5 by 8.532HOU2026-10-08 vs TB: 24, over 23.5 by 0.524TB2026-10-18 at GB: 34, over 23.5 by 10.534GB
Each game against 23.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-12-14MIN23 under−0.5
2025-12-21LAC21 under−2.5
2025-12-25WAS19 under−4.5
2026-01-04NYG7 under−16.5
2026-09-13NYG22 under−1.5
2026-09-20WAS26 over+2.5
2026-09-27BAL25 over+1.5
2026-10-04HOU32 over+8.5
2026-10-08TB24 over+0.5
2026-10-18GB34 over+10.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 105 / 1050%-0.2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Away (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

8 books · 0.5 spread
  • DraftKings 23.5
  • Hard Rock Bet 23.5
  • Fliff 23.5
  • betPARX 23.5
  • BetRivers 23.5
  • Bally Bet 23.5
  • Underdog 23.5
  • PrizePicks 24

Line movement

  • Bally BetMoved from 24.5 to 23.5
  • betPARXMoved from 24.5 to 23.5
  • BetRiversMoved from 24.5 to 23.5
  • DraftKingsMoved from 24.5 to 23.5
  • PrizePicksMoved from 22.5 to 24

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 23.5
2026-10-18@ GB34over
2026-10-08vs TB24over
2026-10-04@ HOU32over
2026-09-27vs BAL25over
2026-09-20vs WAS26over
2026-09-13@ NYG22under
2026-01-04@ NYG7under
2025-12-25@ WAS19under
2025-12-21vs LAC21under
2025-12-14vs MIN23under
2025-12-04@ DET31over
2025-11-27vs KC27over
2025-11-23vs PHI23under
2025-11-17@ LV25over
2025-11-03vs ARI24over
2025-10-26@ DEN19under
2025-10-19vs WAS21under
2025-10-12@ CAR25over
2025-10-05@ NYJ18under
2025-09-28vs GB31over
2025-09-21@ CHI31over
2025-09-14vs NYG38over
2025-09-04@ PHI21under