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Dallas Goedert
PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 39.5 at PrizePicks ·
53Signal · under 39.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
- vs DAL · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 45.6 yds against 39.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 39.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -38 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | DAL | 20 under | −19.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | CHI | 27 under | −12.5 |
| 2025-12-08 | LAC | 78 over | +38.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LV | 70 over | +30.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | WAS | 32 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | BUF | 8 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | WAS | 77 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TEN | 4 under | −35.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | JAX | 38 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CAR | 61 over | +21.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 40.5
- betPARX 37.5
- BetRivers 37.5
- Bally Bet 37.5
- FanDuel 38.5
- Hard Rock Bet 38.5
- ESPN Bet 39.5
- DraftKings 39.5
- Fliff 39.5
- PrizePicks 39.5
- Underdog 39.5
- BetMGM 40.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 40.5 to 37.5
- betPARXMoved from 40.5 to 37.5
- BetRiversMoved from 40.5 to 37.5
- FanDuelMoved from 40.5 to 38.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 41.5 to 38.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 42.5 to 39.5
- FliffMoved from 40.5 to 39.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 38.5 to 39.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 39.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CAR | 61 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ JAX | 38 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TEN | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs WAS | 77 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ BUF | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WAS | 32 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LV | 70 | over |
| 2025-12-08 | @ LAC | 78 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | vs CHI | 27 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DAL | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs DET | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | @ GB | 43 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYG | 28 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ MIN | 18 | under |
| 2025-10-09 | @ NYG | 110 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DEN | 19 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ TB | 37 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LA | 33 | under |
| 2025-09-04 | vs DAL | 44 | over |