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Dallas Goedert
PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at Fliff ·
55Signal · under 4.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.3 against 4.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | DAL | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | CHI | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-08 | LAC | 8 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LV | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | WAS | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | BUF | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | WAS | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TEN | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | JAX | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CAR | 6 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
4.510 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · DK · FD · BB · ESPN · HR · FL · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CAR | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ JAX | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TEN | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs WAS | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WAS | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LV | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-08 | @ LAC | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | vs CHI | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DAL | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs DET | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYG | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-09 | @ NYG | 9 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ TB | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LA | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-04 | vs DAL | 7 | over |