← NFL board4 straight under
Daniel Bellinger
TEN @ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 9.5 at PrizePicks ·
62Signal · under 9.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
- Carnell Tate WR is listed Out (shoulder). He had 26% of TEN's targets this season, 7.3 a game over 7.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.6 a game recently
- vs CIN · ×1.14 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 5.5 yds against 9.5 · over 38%, under 62%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 9.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -28 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | WAS | 35 over | +25.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | LV | 11 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DAL | 38 over | +28.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYJ | 7 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI | 0 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYG | 16 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL | 2 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU | 5 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | IND | 0 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CLE | 4 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
7 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 10.5
- DraftKings 8.5
- DK Pick6 8.5
- ESPN Bet 9.5
- BetMGM 9.5
- Hard Rock Bet 9.5
- PrizePicks 9.5
- FanDuel 10.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 10.5 to 8.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 11.5 to 8.5
- BetMGMMoved from 10.5 to 9.5
- FanDuelMoved from 9.5 to 10.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs CLE | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | @ IND | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs HOU | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BAL | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NYG | 16 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NYJ | 7 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DAL | 38 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ LV | 11 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs WAS | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CHI | 8 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ PHI | 21 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ DEN | 88 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NO | 52 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs LAC | 13 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs KC | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ WAS | 14 | over |