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Daniel Jones
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing TDs · 0.5 at betPARX ·
47Signal · over 0.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 36.3 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 0.7 against 0.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | ATL | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | KC | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | HOU | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | JAX | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 1 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 0.5 spreadEasiest number for the over: 0.5 · best price BB, PX2, FD -230
- Bally Bet 0.5 -230 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 0.5 -230 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- FanDuel 0.5 -230 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 0.5 -234 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 0.5 -235 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 0.5 -235 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 0.5 -240 (easiest number)
- Fliff 0.5 -245 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 0.5 -250 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 1
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 1 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 1 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 1 | over |