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Daniel Jones
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing TDs · 1 at PrizePicks · median 0.5 ·
60Signal · under 160% · 3 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 5Cleared the number in 2 of 5 games, 5 pushes
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 36.3 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 0.7 against 1 · over 40%, under 60% (if it doesn't land exactly on 1)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 1 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | ATL | 1 push | +0.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | KC | 2 over | +1.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | HOU | 2 over | +1.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | JAX | 0 under | −1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 1 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 1 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 1 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 0 under | −1.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 0 under | −1.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 1 push | +0.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 5 | 60% under | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 0.5 spreadEasiest number for the under: 1
- Bally Bet 0.5
- betPARX 0.5
- FanDuel 0.5
- DraftKings 0.5
- BetMGM 0.5
- BetRivers 0.5
- Hard Rock Bet 0.5
- Fliff 0.5
- ESPN Bet 0.5
- PrizePicks 1 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 1 | push |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 1 | push |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 1 | push |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 1 | push |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 1 | push |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 1 | push |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 1 | push |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 1 | push |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 1 | push |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 1 | push |