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DeMario Douglas
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 40.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 39.5 ·
80%under8 / 10 · last 10
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
- vs CHI · ×1.07 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 41.6 yds against 40.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -45 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 0 under | −40.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 6 under | −34.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 10 under | −30.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 29 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 20 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 9 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 38 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 15 under | −25.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 65 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 86 over | +45.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
12 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 40.5
- BetMGM 37.5
- FanDuel 38.5
- betPARX 38.5
- BetRivers 38.5
- Bally Bet 38.5
- ESPN Bet 39.5
- DraftKings 39.5
- DK Pick6 39.5
- PrizePicks 39.5
- Underdog 39.5
- Hard Rock Bet 40.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 40.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 30.5 to 37.5
- Bally BetMoved from 29.5 to 38.5
- betPARXMoved from 29.5 to 38.5
- BetRiversMoved from 29.5 to 38.5
- FanDuelMoved from 35.5 to 38.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 27.5 to 39.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 29.5 to 39.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 35.5 to 39.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 27.5 to 39.5
- FliffMoved from 36.5 to 40.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 27.5 to 40.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 86 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 65 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 38 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 20 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 29 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 33 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 37 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 34 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 100 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 44 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 71 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | -2 | under |