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Derrick Henry
BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 19 at PrizePicks · median 19.5 ·
50Signal · over 1960% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 21.7 a game recently
Expected carries: 21.7 against 19 · over 50%, under 50% (if it doesn't land exactly on 19)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 19 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -8| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 11 under | −8.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 18 under | −1.0 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 36 over | +17.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 20 over | +1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 24 over | +5.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | NO | 16 under | −3.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 26 over | +7.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 23 over | +4.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 24 over | +5.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 17 under | −2.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +2.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5 books · 0.5 spreadEasiest number for the over: 19
- PrizePicks 19 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 19.5 -105
- DraftKings 19.5 -106
- Fliff 19.5 -115
- Underdog 19.5
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 18.5 to 19.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 19 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 24 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 23 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 26 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs NO | 16 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 24 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 20 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 36 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 11 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 25 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 21 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 18 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 20 | over |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 19 | push |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 21 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 24 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 15 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 18 | under |