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Derrick Henry
BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 94.5 at Underdog ·
48Signal · over 94.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
Underdog 94.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 21.7 a game recently
- targets: 1.7 a game recently
- vs CIN · ×1.08 yds per carry
- vs CIN · ×1.05 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 107.5 yds against 94.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 94.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -34| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 100 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 128 over | +33.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 216 over | +121.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 126 over | +31.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 163 over | +68.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NO | 87 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 89 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 79 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 120 over | +25.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 60 under | −34.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +22 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
94.5Underdog· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 94.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 60 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 120 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 79 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 89 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs NO | 87 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 163 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 126 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 216 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 128 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 100 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 102 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 104 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 88 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 122 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 84 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 121 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 71 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 130 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 33 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 58 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 57 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 182 | over |