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Derrick Henry
BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 82.5 at ESPN Bet · median 85.5 ·
47Signal · over 82.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 21.7 a game recently
- vs CIN · ×1.08 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 96.3 yds against 82.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 82.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -24| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 100 over | +17.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 128 over | +45.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 216 over | +133.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 126 over | +43.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 144 over | +61.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NO | 68 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 89 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 73 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 102 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 58 under | −24.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +28 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 82.5
- ESPN Bet 82.5 -125 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 85.5 -110
- DraftKings 85.5 -112
- FanDuel 85.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 85.5 -115
- Fliff 85.5 -120
- BetMGM 86.5 -115
- PrizePicks 86.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 88.5 to 85.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 86.5 to 85.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 82.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 58 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 102 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 73 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 89 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs NO | 68 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 144 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 126 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 216 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 128 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 100 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 94 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 60 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 64 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 103 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 75 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 119 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 71 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 122 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 33 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 42 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 50 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 169 | over |