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DeVonta Smith
PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 6.5 at DraftKings ·
54Signal · under 6.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 10.3 a game recently
Expected receptions: 6.5 against 6.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 6.5 · Nov 28, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | CHI | 5 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-08 | LAC | 4 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LV | 2 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | WAS | 6 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | BUF | 2 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | WAS | 3 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | WAS | 3 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TEN | 10 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | CHI | 6 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CAR | 7 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +1.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
6.55 books, no line disagreementDK · HR · FD · FL · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CAR | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | @ CHI | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TEN | 10 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs WAS | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs WAS | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ BUF | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WAS | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LV | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-08 | @ LAC | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | vs CHI | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DAL | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYG | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ MIN | 9 | over |
| 2025-10-09 | @ NYG | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DEN | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ TB | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LA | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ KC | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-04 | vs DAL | 3 | under |