← NFL board
Elic Ayomanor
TEN @ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 34.5 at PrizePicks · median 33.5 ·
54Signal · over 34.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
- Carnell Tate WR is listed Out (shoulder). He had 26% of TEN's targets this season, 7.3 a game over 7.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.0 a game recently → 4.1 this game
- Tate out · +1.1 targets (16% of his 7.3)
- Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 35.6 yds against 34.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 34.5 · Dec 21, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -31| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | KC | 58 over | +23.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NO | 37 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | JAX | 50 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYJ | 11 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI | 69 over | +34.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYG | 11 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL | 22 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU | 17 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | IND | 3 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CLE | 44 over | +9.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 3 yds spread
- DraftKings 32.5
- FanDuel 32.5
- Hard Rock Bet 32.5
- DK Pick6 32.5
- BetMGM 33.5
- PrizePicks 34.5
- betPARX 35.5
- BetRivers 35.5
- Bally Bet 35.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 18.5 to 34.5
- Bally BetMoved from 19.5 to 35.5
- betPARXMoved from 19.5 to 35.5
- BetRiversMoved from 19.5 to 35.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 34.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs CLE | 44 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ IND | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs HOU | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BAL | 22 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NYG | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PHI | 69 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NYJ | 11 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ JAX | 50 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NO | 37 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs KC | 58 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SF | 17 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ CLE | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs JAX | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs HOU | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs LAC | 46 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ IND | 52 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NE | 29 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | 27 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ ARI | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | 44 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | 38 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LA | 56 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | 13 | under |