← NFL board3 straight over
Emmett Johnson
KC vs NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 10.5 at Underdog ·
53Signal · over 10.571% · 5 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 7Cleared the number in 5 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.3 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 33.9 yds against 10.5 · over 53%, under 47%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 10.5 · Sep 14, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -10| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 44 over | +33.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 20 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 0 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 10 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 18 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SEA | 17 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | DEN | 128 over | +117.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 7 | 71% over | +23 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 71% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 10.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ DEN | 128 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | @ SEA | 17 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 18 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 20 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 44 | over |