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Emmett Johnson
KC @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Fliff ·
47Signal · over 1.563% · 5 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 8Cleared the number in 5 of 8 games, 2 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.8 against 1.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 8 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Sep 14, 2026 – Nov 8, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SEA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | DEN | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-11-08 | NYJ | 0 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 8 | 63% over | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 63% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.54 books, no line disagreementHR · DK · FD · FL· best price at 1.5: HR -155
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | vs NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2026-11-01 | @ DEN | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | @ SEA | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 2 | over |