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Emmett Johnson
KC vs NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 11.5 at PrizePicks ·
45Signal · over 11.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 7Cleared the number in 4 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 2.9 a game recently
- vs NYJ · ×0.99 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 10.9 yds against 11.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 11.5 · Sep 14, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -11| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 24 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 15 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 17 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 6 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SEA | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | DEN | 15 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 7 | 57% over | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 57% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ DEN | 15 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | @ SEA | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 15 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 24 | over |