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Evan Engram
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 21.5 at Bally Bet · median 22.5 ·
54Signal · under 21.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.2 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.08 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 24.1 yds against 21.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 21.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -33 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 12 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 36 over | +14.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 21 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 45 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 43 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 17 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 0 under | −21.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 6 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 55 over | +33.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 13 under | −8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 24.5
- BetMGM 21.5
- Bally Bet 21.5
- betPARX 21.5
- BetRivers 21.5
- FanDuel 22.5
- Hard Rock Bet 22.5
- ESPN Bet 22.5
- Fliff 22.5
- PrizePicks 22.5
- DraftKings 24.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 24.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 20.5 to 21.5
- BetMGMMoved from 22.5 to 21.5
- betPARXMoved from 20.5 to 21.5
- BetRiversMoved from 20.5 to 21.5
- FanDuelMoved from 23.5 to 22.5
- FliffMoved from 23.5 to 22.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 23.5 to 22.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 22.5 to 24.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 23.5 to 24.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 13 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 55 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 43 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 45 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 21 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 36 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 79 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 33 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 36 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 42 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 42 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 33 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 29 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 21 | under |