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Geno Smith
NYJ vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 7.5 at DraftKings ·
58Signal · under 7.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.1 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 6.0 yds against 7.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 7.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -9 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | DEN | 4 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 0 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 1 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TEN | 7 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | GB | 17 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DET | 12 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CHI | 0 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CLE | 7 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NE | -1 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | MIA | 0 under | −7.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 7.5
- FanDuel 6.5
- Hard Rock Bet 6.5
- PrizePicks 6.5
- DraftKings 7.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 7.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 7.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 7.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 7.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 7.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 7.5 to 6.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 7.5 to 6.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 7.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs MIA | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | @ NE | -1 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CLE | 7 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DET | 12 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs GB | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ TEN | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | -6 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 14 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 9 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | -3 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 31 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 10 | over |