← NFL board3 straight over
Hunter Henry
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 35.5 at DraftKings ·
60%over6 / 10 · last 10
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.0 a game recently
- vs CHI · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 37.3 yds against 35.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 35.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -30| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 18 under | −17.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 35 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 49 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 56 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 26 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 40 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 5 under | −30.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 62 over | +26.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 44 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 48 over | +12.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 33.5 · best price PX2 -110
- betPARX 33.5 -110 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 33.5 -112 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 33.5 -113 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 33.5 -115 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 33.5 -120 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 35.5 -113
- Hard Rock Bet 35.5 -115
- Fliff 35.5 -120
- DK Pick6 35.5
- ESPN Bet 36.5 -105
- PrizePicks 36.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 32.5 to 35.5
- FliffMoved from 33.5 to 35.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 32.5 to 35.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 33.5 to 35.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 31.5 to 36.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 32.5 to 36.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 35.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 48 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 44 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 62 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 40 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 26 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 56 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 49 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 35 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 73 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 115 | over |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 45 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 51 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 33 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 27 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 46 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 39 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 90 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 9 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 66 | over |