← NFL board3 straight over
J.K. Dobbins
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 4.5 at DraftKings ·
56Signal · under 4.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.5 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 4.6 yds against 4.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -6| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | -1 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 10 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | -2 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 12 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 5 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 yds spread
- DraftKings 4.5
- FanDuel 4.5
- BetMGM 4.5
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5
- DK Pick6 4.5
- PrizePicks 4.5
- Underdog 4.5
- ESPN Bet 5.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 12 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | -2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 10 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | -1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 9 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 5 | over |