← NFL board3 straight over
J.K. Dobbins
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at BetMGM ·
56Signal · under 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.5 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.3 against 1.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.56 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · MGM · ESPN · HR · FL
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 2 | over |