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Javonte Williams
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETCarries · 16.5 at BetMGM ·
58Signal · under 16.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.2 a game recently
Expected carries: 14.2 against 16.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Dec 4, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | DET | 17 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 15 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 9 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | WAS | 13 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 12 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 12 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 19 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 19 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 12 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 11 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +2.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
16.59 books, no line disagreementMGM · FAN · DK · HR · FL · PX2 · BB · PP · UD
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 15.5 to 16.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 17.5 to 16.5
- UnderdogMoved from 17.5 to 16.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 11 | under |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 12 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 19 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 19 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 12 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ WAS | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 9 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 22 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 15 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | 19 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NYG | 18 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | @ PHI | 15 | under |