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Jaylen Warren
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETCarries · 14 at PrizePicks · median 13.5 ·
46Signal · under 1457% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 7Cleared the number in 3 of 7 games, 3 pushes
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.0 a game recently
Expected carries: 14.0 against 14 · over 46%, under 54% (if it doesn't land exactly on 14)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 14 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 12 under | −2.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 14 push | +0.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 12 under | −2.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 14 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 10 under | −4.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 11 under | −3.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 17 over | +3.0 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 17 over | +3.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 15 over | +1.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 14 push | +0.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 7 | 57% under | +0.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 57% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
7 books · 2 spreadEasiest number for the under: 15.5
- DraftKings 13.5
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5
- Fanatics 13.5
- Fliff 13.5
- PrizePicks 14
- betPARX 15.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 15.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 15.5 to 13.5
- FliffMoved from 15.5 to 13.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 15.5 to 13.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 15.5 to 14
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 14 | push |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 15 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 10 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 14 | push |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 14 | push |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 14 | push |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 16 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 16 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 18 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 14 | push |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 11 | under |