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Jaylen Warren
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETRushing Yards · 64.5 at ESPN Bet · median 63.5 ·
52Signal · under 64.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.0 a game recently
- vs NO · ×1.01 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 77.4 yds against 64.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 64.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -31| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 33 under | −31.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 143 over | +78.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 64 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 66 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 46 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 43 under | −21.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 127 over | +62.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 93 over | +28.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 101 over | +36.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 50 under | −14.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +12 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spread
- BetMGM 62.5
- FanDuel 63.5
- Hard Rock Bet 63.5
- Fliff 63.5
- PrizePicks 63.5
- DraftKings 64.5
- ESPN Bet 64.5
- betPARX 64.5
- BetRivers 64.5
- Bally Bet 64.5
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 63.5 to 62.5
- FanDuelMoved from 66.5 to 63.5
- FliffMoved from 65.5 to 63.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 64.5 to 63.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 64.5 to 63.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 63.5 to 64.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 64.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 50 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 101 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 93 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 127 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 43 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 46 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 66 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 64 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 143 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 33 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 35 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 68 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 62 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 70 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 31 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 62 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 127 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 52 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 47 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 48 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 37 | under |