← NFL board3 straight over
Jaylin Noel
HOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 26.5 at betPARX · median 27.5 ·
56Signal · over 26.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.5 a game recently → 3.8 this game
- WR3 on the depth chart (usually WR4+) · ×1.08 targets
- vs NYG · ×0.99 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 60.7 yds against 26.5 · over 56%, under 44%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 26.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -26| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | IND | 0 under | −26.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | KC | 12 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | LAC | 54 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | IND | 13 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF | 53 over | +26.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CIN | 31 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | IND | 17 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DAL | 85 over | +58.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | TEN | 41 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | JAX | 107 over | +80.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +15 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 25.5
- BetMGM 25.5 -135 (easiest number)
- betPARX 26.5 -112
- BetRivers 26.5 -113
- Bally Bet 26.5 -117
- FanDuel 27.5 -113
- PrizePicks 27.5
- DraftKings 28.5 -109
- Fliff 28.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 28.5 -115
- DK Pick6 28.5
- ESPN Bet 29.5 -105
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 27.5 to 26.5
- betPARXMoved from 27.5 to 26.5
- BetRiversMoved from 27.5 to 26.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 29.5 to 28.5
- FliffMoved from 27.5 to 28.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 26.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ JAX | 107 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ TEN | 41 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DAL | 85 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ IND | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CIN | 31 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BUF | 53 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs IND | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ LAC | 54 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ KC | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ IND | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-20 | vs BUF | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ TEN | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs JAX | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs DEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs SF | 63 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ SEA | 77 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BAL | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs TEN | -2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ JAX | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ LA | 7 | under |