Jerry Jeudy

CLE @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 2.5 at BetMGM · median 1.5 ·

45Signal · over 2.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

6 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.8 a game recently

Expected receptions: 2.4 against 2.5 · over 45%, under 55%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 2.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -2.5

Each game against 2.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-07	TEN	3 over	+0.5
2025-12-14	CHI	2 under	−0.5
2025-12-21	BUF	3 over	+0.5
2025-12-28	PIT	5 over	+2.5
2026-01-04	CIN	2 under	−0.5
2026-09-13	JAX	2 under	−0.5
2026-09-20	TB	0 under	−2.5
2026-10-01	PIT	3 over	+0.5
2026-10-11	NYJ	3 over	+0.5
2026-10-18	BAL	4 over	+1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% over	+0.2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

5 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 1.5 · best price DK -185

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 2.5
2026-10-18	vs BAL	4	over
2026-10-11	@ NYJ	3	over
2026-10-01	vs PIT	3	over
2026-09-20	@ TB	0	under
2026-09-13	@ JAX	2	under
2026-01-04	@ CIN	2	under
2025-12-28	vs PIT	5	over
2025-12-21	vs BUF	3	over
2025-12-14	@ CHI	2	under
2025-12-07	vs TEN	3	over
2025-11-30	vs SF	3	over
2025-11-23	@ LV	1	under
2025-11-16	vs BAL	3	over
2025-11-09	@ NYJ	6	over
2025-10-26	@ NE	0	under
2025-10-19	vs MIA	2	under
2025-10-12	@ PIT	5	over
2025-10-05	vs MIN	2	under
2025-09-28	@ DET	3	over
2025-09-21	vs GB	1	under
2025-09-14	@ BAL	4	over
2025-09-07	vs CIN	5	over