← NFL board3 straight over
Jerry Jeudy
CLE @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Fliff ·
51Signal · over 1.590% · 9 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
9 / 10Cleared the number in 9 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 2.4 against 1.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | TEN | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CHI | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BUF | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | PIT | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CIN | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | JAX | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TB | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | PIT | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYJ | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL | 4 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 9 / 10 | 90% over | +1.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 90% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 1.5 · best price DK -185
- DraftKings 1.5 -185 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 1.5 -195 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 1.5 -205 (easiest number)
- Fliff 1.5 -205 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 2.5 +130
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BAL | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NYJ | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PIT | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TB | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ JAX | 2 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ CIN | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PIT | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs BUF | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs TEN | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs SF | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LV | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs BAL | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ NYJ | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs MIA | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ PIT | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIN | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ DET | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs GB | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ BAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs CIN | 5 | over |