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Jonathan Taylor
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 2.5 at ESPN Bet ·
46Signal · over 2.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 2.5 against 2.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | SEA | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | SF | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | JAX | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | HOU | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 2 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
2.58 books, no line disagreementDK · ESPN · FD · FL · HR · PX2 · BR · BB· best price at 2.5: DK +111
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 3 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ HOU | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs JAX | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | vs SF | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SEA | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 3 | over |