← NFL board3 straight over
Jordan Whittington
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
50Signal · over 0.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.4 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.0 against 0.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | BAL | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | JAX | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | SEA | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | TB | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | CAR | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | ARI | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 1 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
0.54 books, no line disagreementDK · FL · HR · FD· best price at 0.5: DK -189
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 1 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 1 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 1 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 0 | under |