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Keon Coleman
BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 30.5 at PrizePicks ·
51Signal · over 30.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.0 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×1.03 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 48.7 yds against 30.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 30.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -29| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | MIA | 46 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | PIT | 9 under | −21.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | CIN | 16 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYJ | 49 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | HOU | 1 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | DET | 63 over | +32.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LAC | 37 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NE | 116 over | +85.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | LA | 7 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LV | 59 over | +28.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +10 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 30.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 30.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 30.5 -115 (easiest number)
- betPARX 30.5 -117 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 30.5 -118 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 30.5 -122 (easiest number)
- Fliff 30.5 -125 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 30.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 31.5 -114
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 45.5 to 30.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 30.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LV | 59 | over |
| 2026-10-12 | @ LA | 7 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NE | 116 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LAC | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-17 | vs DET | 63 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ HOU | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NYJ | 49 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CIN | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ PIT | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIA | 46 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs KC | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CAR | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ ATL | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NE | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs NO | 45 | over |
| 2025-09-18 | vs MIA | 20 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NYJ | 26 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs BAL | 112 | over |