Khalil Herbert

ATL @ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards · 9.5 at Underdog ·

48Signal · under 9.575% · 3 / 4 · last 10 · the formula's chance

1 / 4

Brian Robinson RB is listed Out (hamstring). He had 30% of ATL's carries this season, 8.8 a game over 6.

The game history below does not account for this absence.

How the formula reads this game

carries: 4.0 a game recently → 4.7 this game
Robinson out · +0.7 carries (8% of his 8.8)
vs TB · ×0.99 yds per carry
Heavier load · ×1.01 yds per carry

Expected rushing yards: 16.3 yds against 9.5 · over 52%, under 48%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 1 this season.

Last 10 games against 9.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026

Worst miss -32 on the under

Each game against 9.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-12-14	JAX	5 under	−4.5
2025-12-28	NE	5 under	−4.5
2026-01-04	BUF	42 over	+32.5
2026-10-25	SF	9 under	−0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	3 / 4	75% under	-6
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 75% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

9.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 9.5
2026-10-25	vs SF	9	under
2026-01-04	@ BUF	42	over
2025-12-28	vs NE	5	under
2025-12-14	@ JAX	5	under