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Kyren Williams
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETCarries · 14.5 at Fliff · median 13.5 ·
56Signal · under 14.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.3 a game recently
Expected carries: 13.3 against 14.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -4.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 23 over | +8.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 13 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 12 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 11 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 12 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 16 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 16 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 10 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 spread
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5
- betPARX 13.5
- BetMGM 13.5
- Bally Bet 13.5
- PrizePicks 14
- DraftKings 14.5
- Fliff 14.5
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 14.5 to 13.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 13.5 to 14.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 10 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 16 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 16 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 15 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 12 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 11 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 15 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 25 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 12 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 18 | over |