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Kyren Williams
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 23.5 at ESPN Bet · median 24.5 ·
52Signal · under 23.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.5 a game recently
- vs LV · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 37.1 yds against 23.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 23.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -13| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 10 under | −13.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 15 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 38 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 21 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 24 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 12 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 70 over | +46.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 67 over | +43.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 27 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 17 under | −6.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spread
- ESPN Bet 23.5
- DraftKings 23.5
- BetMGM 23.5
- PrizePicks 23.5
- FanDuel 24.5
- Fliff 24.5
- Hard Rock Bet 24.5
- Fanatics 25.5
- betPARX 26.5
- BetRivers 26.5
- Bally Bet 26.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 24.5 to 23.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 19.5 to 23.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 23.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 27 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 67 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 70 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 12 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 24 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 21 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 38 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 37 | over |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 66 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 3 | under |