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Kyren Williams
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at FanDuel ·
48Signal · under 3.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.5 a game recently
Expected receptions: 5.0 against 3.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -6.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 10 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 3 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | -0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
3.511 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · BB · MGM · FD · HR · FL · DK · ESPN · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 10 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 1 | under |