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Kyren Williams
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 95.5 at BetMGM · median 93.5 ·
53Signal · under 95.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.3 a game recently
- targets: 6.5 a game recently
- vs LV · ×1.01 yds per carry
- vs LV · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 102.9 yds against 95.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 95.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -62 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 88 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 85 under | −10.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 130 over | +34.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 81 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 65 under | −30.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 97 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 158 over | +62.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 147 over | +51.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 76 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 67 under | −28.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 95.5
- DraftKings 92.5
- Hard Rock Bet 92.5
- PrizePicks 92.5
- FanDuel 93.5
- Bally Bet 93.5
- betPARX 93.5
- BetRivers 93.5
- Fliff 93.5
- BetMGM 95.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 94.5 to 92.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 93.5 to 92.5
- FanDuelMoved from 92.5 to 93.5
- FliffMoved from 94.5 to 93.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 95.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 67 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 76 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 147 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 158 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 97 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 65 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 81 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 130 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 85 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 88 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 97 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 72 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 48 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 96 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 84 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 114 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 65 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 87 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 131 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 94 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 112 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 80 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 69 | under |