← NFL board5 straight over
Malik Washington
MIA @ NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 40.5 at betPARX · median 41.5 ·
52Signal · under 40.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.2 a game recently
- vs NYJ · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 51.2 yds against 40.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -36| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | NYJ | 10 under | −30.5 |
| 2025-12-15 | PIT | 10 under | −30.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CIN | 23 under | −17.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | TB | 4 under | −36.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NE | 6 under | −34.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 53 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 43 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 56 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIN | 67 over | +26.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 43 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spread
- Fanatics 40.5
- Bally Bet 40.5
- betPARX 40.5
- BetRivers 40.5
- DraftKings 41.5
- FanDuel 41.5
- Hard Rock Bet 41.5
- Fliff 41.5
- PrizePicks 41.5
- BetMGM 43.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 43 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ MIN | 67 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 56 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 43 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 53 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NE | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs TB | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs CIN | 23 | under |
| 2025-12-15 | @ PIT | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ NYJ | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs NO | 30 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs WAS | 42 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BUF | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | vs BAL | 48 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ ATL | 36 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ CLE | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LAC | 22 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs NYJ | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-18 | @ BUF | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NE | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ IND | 20 | under |