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Malik Willis
MIA vs NE · Sun 4:25 PM ETPassing Yards · 184.5 at Fliff · median 183.5 ·
55Signal · under 184.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 25.2 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 176.2 yds against 184.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 184.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -178| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | NYG | 6 under | −178.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | MIN | 7 under | −177.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 121 under | −63.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 288 over | +103.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 220 over | +35.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 197 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 210 over | +25.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIN | 85 under | −99.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 137 under | −47.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 208 over | +23.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -37 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
12 books · 5 yds spread
- BetMGM 180.5
- Fanatics 180.5
- Bally Bet 182.5
- betPARX 182.5
- BetRivers 182.5
- DraftKings 183.5
- DK Pick6 183.5
- ESPN Bet 184.5
- Hard Rock Bet 184.5
- Fliff 184.5
- FanDuel 185.5
- PrizePicks 185.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 185.5 to 182.5
- betPARXMoved from 185.5 to 182.5
- BetRiversMoved from 185.5 to 182.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 181.5 to 183.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 184.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 208 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 137 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ MIN | 85 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 210 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 197 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 220 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 288 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 121 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs MIN | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 6 | under |