← NFL board3 straight over
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN vs KC · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
47Signal · over 1.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
- RJ Harvey RB is listed Out (knee). He had 17% of DEN's targets this season, 4.7 a game over 6.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.8 against 1.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | WAS | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LV | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | ARI | 2 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.54 books, no line disagreementHR · FD · DK · FL· best price at 1.5: HR -160
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ ARI | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 3 | over |