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Mason Taylor
NYJ vs MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 23.5 at betPARX · median 22.5 ·
42Signal · over 23.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.0 a game recently → 4.9 this game
- TE1 on the depth chart (usually TE2) · ×1.23 targets
- vs MIA · ×1.05 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×0.82 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 19.4 yds against 23.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 23.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -25| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | CAR | 31 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | CIN | 34 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | CLE | 4 under | −19.5 |
| 2025-11-13 | NE | 30 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | BAL | 21 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ATL | 21 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | MIA | 51 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TEN | -2 under | −25.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CLE | 24 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NE | 33 over | +9.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 22.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 22.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 22.5 -115 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 22.5 -115 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 22.5 -115 (easiest number)
- Fliff 22.5 -125 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 22.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 23.5 -125
- betPARX 23.5 -125
- BetRivers 23.5 -125
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 23.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NE | 33 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CLE | 24 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ TEN | -2 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs MIA | 51 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ATL | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ BAL | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | @ NE | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs CLE | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CIN | 34 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs CAR | 31 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DAL | 67 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | @ MIA | 65 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TB | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs BUF | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs PIT | 20 | under |