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Mason Taylor
NYJ vs MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at DraftKings · median 2.5 ·
53Signal · under 3.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.0 a game recently → 4.9 this game
- TE1 on the depth chart (usually TE2) · ×1.23 targets
Expected receptions: 3.7 against 3.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | CAR | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | CIN | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | CLE | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-11-13 | NE | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | BAL | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ATL | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | MIA | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TEN | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CLE | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NE | 4 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 3.5
- Bally Bet 2.5
- betPARX 2.5
- BetRivers 2.5
- Hard Rock Bet 2.5
- Fliff 2.5
- PrizePicks 3
- DraftKings 3.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 3.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NE | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CLE | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ TEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs MIA | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ATL | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ BAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | @ NE | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs CAR | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DAL | 9 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | @ MIA | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TB | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs BUF | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs PIT | 1 | under |