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Matthew Golden
GB @ DET · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 72.5 at betPARX · median 73.5 ·
47Signal · under 72.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 9.5 a game recently
- vs DET · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 84.8 yds against 72.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 72.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -50 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DEN | 55 under | −17.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 0 under | −72.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 12 under | −60.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIN | 8 under | −64.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIN | 95 over | +22.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NYJ | 58 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | ATL | 100 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TB | 21 under | −51.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CHI | 123 over | +50.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | DAL | 104 over | +31.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +15 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 75.5
- Fanatics 70.5
- betPARX 72.5
- BetRivers 72.5
- Bally Bet 72.5
- FanDuel 73.5
- BetMGM 73.5
- Hard Rock Bet 73.5
- ESPN Bet 74.5
- Fliff 74.5
- DraftKings 75.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 75.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 73.5 to 72.5
- betPARXMoved from 73.5 to 72.5
- BetRiversMoved from 73.5 to 72.5
- FliffMoved from 73.5 to 74.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 73.5 to 75.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 69.5 to 75.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 72.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs DAL | 104 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CHI | 123 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ TB | 21 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | vs ATL | 100 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NYJ | 58 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ MIN | 95 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ MIN | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DEN | 55 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CAR | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ PIT | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ ARI | 37 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CIN | 86 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ DAL | 58 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CLE | 52 | under |
| 2025-09-11 | vs WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs DET | 16 | under |