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Matthew Stafford
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETPassing Yards · 274.5 at Underdog · median 270.5 ·
49Signal · over 274.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 41.5 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 299.0 yds against 274.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 274.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -119| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 368 over | +93.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 457 over | +182.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 269 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 259 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 155 under | −119.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 327 over | +52.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 390 over | +115.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 317 over | +42.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 383 over | +108.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 222 under | −52.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +40 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 6 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 268.5 · best price BB, PX2 -113
- Bally Bet 268.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 268.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 268.5 -114 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 268.5 -115 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 269.5 -120
- FanDuel 270.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 270.5 -115
- PrizePicks 270.5
- DraftKings 271.5 -112
- Fliff 271.5 -120
- Underdog 274.5
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 272.5 to 270.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 252.5 to 270.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 276.5 to 271.5
- FliffMoved from 270.5 to 271.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 274.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 222 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 383 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 317 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 390 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 327 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 155 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 259 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 269 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 457 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 368 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 281 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 243 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 273 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 130 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 280 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 281 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 182 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 181 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 389 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 375 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 196 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 298 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 245 | under |