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Michael Carter
TEN @ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 · median of 2 books ·
50Signal · over 1.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
- Carnell Tate WR is listed Out (shoulder). He had 26% of TEN's targets this season, 7.3 a game over 7.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.1 a game recently
Expected receptions: 2.3 against 1.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | SEA | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | SF | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | JAX | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | TB | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CLE | 1 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.52 books, no line disagreementDK · FD· best price at 1.5: DK -125
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs JAX | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | vs SEA | 0 | under |