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Michael Carter
TEN @ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 23.5 · median of 3 books ·
56Signal · over 23.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
- Carnell Tate WR is listed Out (shoulder). He had 26% of TEN's targets this season, 7.3 a game over 7.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.4 a game recently
- targets: 3.1 a game recently
- vs CIN · ×1.06 yds per carry
- vs CIN · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 48.8 yds against 23.5 · over 56%, under 44%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 23.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -19| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | SEA | 4 under | −19.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | SF | 28 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | JAX | 58 over | +34.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | TB | 64 over | +40.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LA | 31 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 94 over | +70.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 65 over | +41.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 43 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 39 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CLE | 14 under | −9.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +21 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
23.53 books, no line disagreementFD · DK · PP· best price at 23.5: FD -114
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 23.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs CLE | 14 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 39 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 65 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 94 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 31 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 64 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs JAX | 58 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 28 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 36 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 64 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 73 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | vs SEA | 1 | under |