Michael Carter

TEN @ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards · 12.5 · median of 4 books ·

55Signal · over 12.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

7 / 10

How the formula reads this game

carries: 6.4 a game recently
vs CIN · ×1.06 yds per carry

Expected rushing yards: 28.2 yds against 12.5 · over 55%, under 45%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.

Last 10 games against 12.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026

Worst miss -8

Each game against 12.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-09	SEA	4 under	−8.5
2025-11-16	SF	6 under	−6.5
2025-11-23	JAX	28 over	+15.5
2025-11-30	TB	17 over	+4.5
2025-12-07	LA	13 over	+0.5
2025-12-14	HOU	56 over	+43.5
2025-12-21	ATL	65 over	+52.5
2025-12-28	CIN	29 over	+16.5
2026-01-04	LA	18 over	+5.5
2026-10-25	CLE	7 under	−5.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	7 / 10	70% over	+12
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

12.54 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · PK6 · PP· best price at 12.5: DK, FD -114

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 12.5
2026-10-25	vs CLE	7	under
2026-01-04	@ LA	18	over
2025-12-28	@ CIN	29	over
2025-12-21	vs ATL	65	over
2025-12-14	@ HOU	56	over
2025-12-07	vs LA	13	over
2025-11-30	@ TB	17	over
2025-11-23	vs JAX	28	over
2025-11-16	vs SF	6	under
2025-11-09	@ SEA	4	under
2025-10-19	vs GB	11	under
2025-10-12	@ IND	34	over
2025-10-05	vs TEN	51	over
2025-09-25	vs SEA	1	under