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Michael Mayer
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 30.5 at Fliff · median 29.5 ·
48Signal · over 30.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.7 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.88 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 38.9 yds against 30.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 30.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -28| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | CLE | 14 under | −16.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 10 under | −20.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 89 over | +58.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | KC | 47 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIA | 32 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 23 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 32 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 82 over | +51.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 2 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 95 over | +64.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +12 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 29.5 · best price ESPN -110
- ESPN Bet 29.5 -110 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 29.5 -112 (easiest number)
- betPARX 29.5 -115 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 29.5 -117 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 29.5 -120 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 29.5 -121 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 29.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 30.5 -114
- BetMGM 30.5 -120
- Fliff 30.5 -120
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 30.5 to 29.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 35.5 to 29.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 30.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 95 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 82 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 32 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 23 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs MIA | 32 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs KC | 47 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 89 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 22 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 26 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 50 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 9 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 38 | over |