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Michael Mayer
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at betPARX ·
49Signal · under 3.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.7 against 3.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -5.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | CLE | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 9 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | KC | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIA | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 8 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 7 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.59 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · BB · MGM · DK · ESPN · HR · FD · FL
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 7 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs MIA | 6 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs KC | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 4 | over |