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Michael Penix Jr.
ATL @ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 1.5 · median of 6 books ·
64Signal · over 1.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
- Brian Robinson RB is listed Out (hamstring). He had 30% of ATL's carries this season, 8.8 a game over 6.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 2.4 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 0.8 yds against 1.5 · over 36%, under 64%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Oct 13, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -3| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | BUF | 6 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | SF | 6 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NE | 19 over | +17.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | IND | -1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CAR | 9 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | -2 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | -2 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 8 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SF | -1 under | −2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
1.56 books, no line disagreementDK · ESPN · HR · FD · PK6 · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs SF | -1 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | -2 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | -2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | -1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 19 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 9 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | -1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 21 | over |