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Nate Adkins
DEN @ SF · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 · median of 2 books ·
57Signal · over 0.563% · 5 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 8Cleared the number in 5 of 8 games, 2 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.1 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.4 against 0.5 · over 57%, under 43%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 29, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-09-29 | CIN | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | PHI | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | NYJ | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 1 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 8 | 63% over | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 63% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Book Range
0.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 2 | over |