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Ollie Gordon II

MIA vs NE · Sun 4:25 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 10.5 at Bally Bet ·

70Signal · under 10.590% · 9 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 10Cleared the number in 1 of 10 games
3 straight under

How the formula reads this game

  • targets: 1.6 a game recently
  • vs NE · ×0.98 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 2.8 yds against 10.5 · over 27%, under 73%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 10.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026

Worst miss -3 on the under
10.52025-11-30 vs NO: 0, under 10.5 by 10.5 yds0NO2025-12-07 at NYJ: 0, under 10.5 by 10.5 yds0NYJ2025-12-15 at PIT: 0, under 10.5 by 10.5 yds0PIT2025-12-21 vs CIN: 0, under 10.5 by 10.5 yds0CIN2026-01-04 at NE: 2, under 10.5 by 8.5 yds2NE2026-09-20 at SF: 0, under 10.5 by 10.5 yds0SF2026-09-27 vs KC: 14, over 10.5 by 3.5 yds14KC2026-10-04 at MIN: 0, under 10.5 by 10.5 yds0MIN2026-10-11 vs CIN: 0, under 10.5 by 10.5 yds0CIN2026-10-25 at NYJ: 0, under 10.5 by 10.5 yds0NYJ
Each game against 10.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-11-30NO0 under−10.5
2025-12-07NYJ0 under−10.5
2025-12-15PIT0 under−10.5
2025-12-21CIN0 under−10.5
2026-01-04NE2 under−8.5
2026-09-20SF0 under−10.5
2026-09-27KC14 over+3.5
2026-10-04MIN0 under−10.5
2026-10-11CIN0 under−10.5
2026-10-25NYJ0 under−10.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 109 / 1090% under+9
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Home (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 90% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

10 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 10.5
  • BetMGM 9.5
  • ESPN Bet 9.5
  • DraftKings 10.5 (easiest number)
  • FanDuel 10.5 (easiest number)
  • Hard Rock Bet 10.5 (easiest number)
  • Bally Bet 10.5 (easiest number)
  • betPARX 10.5 (easiest number)
  • BetRivers 10.5 (easiest number)
  • DK Pick6 10.5 (easiest number)
  • PrizePicks 10.5 (easiest number)

Line movement

  • BetMGMMoved from 8.5 to 9.5
  • Bally BetMoved from 9.5 to 10.5
  • betPARXMoved from 9.5 to 10.5
  • BetRiversMoved from 9.5 to 10.5
  • DraftKingsMoved from 9.5 to 10.5
  • FanDuelMoved from 9.5 to 10.5
  • Hard Rock BetMoved from 9.5 to 10.5
  • PrizePicksMoved from 12.5 to 10.5

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 10.5
2026-10-25@ NYJ0under
2026-10-11vs CIN0under
2026-10-04@ MIN0under
2026-09-27vs KC14over
2026-09-20@ SF0under
2026-01-04@ NE2under
2025-12-21vs CIN0under
2025-12-15@ PIT0under
2025-12-07@ NYJ0under
2025-11-30vs NO0under
2025-11-16vs WAS0under
2025-11-09vs BUF0under
2025-10-30vs BAL3under
2025-10-26@ ATL20over
2025-10-19@ CLE2under
2025-10-12vs LAC1under
2025-10-05@ CAR0under
2025-09-29vs NYJ0under
2025-09-18@ BUF0under
2025-09-14vs NE5under
2025-09-07@ IND-1under