← NFL board3 straight over
Ollie Gordon II
MIA vs NE · Sun 4:25 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 76.5 at DraftKings · median 75.5 ·
56Signal · under 76.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.4 a game recently
- targets: 1.6 a game recently
- vs NE · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 70.6 yds against 76.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 76.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -26 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | NO | 10 under | −66.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NYJ | 17 under | −59.5 |
| 2025-12-15 | PIT | 0 under | −76.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CIN | -1 under | −77.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NE | 11 under | −65.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 7 under | −69.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 55 under | −21.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIN | 100 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 88 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 103 over | +26.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +38 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 76.5
- BetMGM 71.5
- Bally Bet 75.5
- betPARX 75.5
- BetRivers 75.5
- FanDuel 76.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 76.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 76.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 76.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 72.5 to 71.5
- Bally BetMoved from 74.5 to 75.5
- betPARXMoved from 74.5 to 75.5
- BetRiversMoved from 74.5 to 75.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 77.5 to 76.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 103 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 88 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ MIN | 100 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 55 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 7 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NE | 11 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs CIN | -1 | under |
| 2025-12-15 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ NYJ | 17 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs NO | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs WAS | 45 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BUF | -3 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | vs BAL | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ ATL | 66 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ CLE | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LAC | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CAR | -2 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs NYJ | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-18 | @ BUF | 38 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NE | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ IND | 3 | under |